Comments on: USA Today Bestseller List Predictions

By: CM

CM — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 14:13:20 +0000

I thought, when I first saw this, that I would be absolutely shocked if J.R. Ward didn’t make the NYT list, let alone the USA Today list, after her official release date. Now I really wish I had posted at the time. :)

On Thursday, I went to get Lover Unbound. My local Borders–which is reputed to be one of the NYT-reporting Borders, and so gets wonderful attention–had already sold out.

And I just checked–J.R. Ward’s Bookscan numbers for the week ending 9/30 are . . . high. Extraordinarily so. Wow.

By: Jane

Jane — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 20:52:55 +0000

According to the research I did (alot of it from Dr. Alan Sorensen’s papers for Stanford), the NYT is based alot on presales (which I guess would be orders). The booksellers get a list of books that NYT perceives to be bestsellers and then the booksellers are allowed to rank them. There is a space for them to write in any books that are not on the list but are moving.

USAToday says that it is a statistical sampling of reported sales but I think that they get numbers from distributors too.

By: Julie Leto

Julie Leto — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 19:53:03 +0000

To get the entire Bookscan list, which is much more comprehensive, it costs $5K a year, I believe. I was able, when my agent did a trial membership, to see not only how many books I sold at which retailers, but also in which cities. It was interesting.

From what I understand and I could be wrong, NYTimes is based on orders and USA Today is based on actual sales. Does anyone know if this is a publishing urban legend?

By: Jackie L.

Jackie L. — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 19:42:25 +0000

Christine Feehan asked her fans to buy her first hardbound on the release date so she could hit NYT Bestseller list. I think it topped at number 3. As a reader, I am more interested in the NYT list than USA Today, because my favorite authors all say, “NYT Bestselling author.” I am probably not alone. So I would say asking fans to buy to help numbers can impact the author’s career.

By: RfP

RfP — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 08:42:33 +0000

I’ve also read that some hardcore Ward fans feel guilty enough that they have done so that they intend to buy them again during the street date. I don’t know how true this is.

I’m sure it’s true. Hardcore fans will do things like that.

I think a fan club can make a difference in those crucial first couple weeks that determine whether a book makes a “list”. (The way those lists are created and calculated is ridiculous, but that’s another topic.)

However, I doubt that a fan club makes much difference in the longer run–which is what matters more to the author’s career. A book can be hot for two weeks but not meet the publisher’s expectations for total sales.

By: Anne H

Anne H — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 05:53:36 +0000

I’ve read an email that Ward issued to her MB members requesting them not to buy the book before the street date. I’ve also read that some hardcore Ward fans feel guilty enough that they have done so that they intend to buy them again during the street date. I don’t know how true this is.

By: Anji

Anji — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 03:46:22 +0000

Ann Bruce said:
To be honest, when I saw McCarty, I thought of Sarah McCarty. Could other readers be making the same mistake?

Me too! But I now I’ve gotten curious about Monica McCarty’s books, and I added her most recent to my TBR pile. Does anyone know how connected the books in the series are - do you have to have read the other two books in the series in order to really appreciate the third book?

By: Caroline

Caroline — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 01:48:01 +0000

Monica’s books are somewhat out of the ordinary in that they are more historical fiction that emphasizes a romance plot: she bases them on real people in the historic record (yes, she is a friend of mine).

But the Ballantine back-to-back-to-back model has been really successful in general. Allison Brennan and Tracy Ann Warren both did very well for them. I think it is hard to overestimate the impact strong publisher support and a high print run can have on launching a new author. Print runs for debut authors are as low as 20,000 in mass market (I have heard); Ballantine gives these debut authors a print run of 200,000+, and they promote the books, too. Just think how many more people can find a book if the print run is 200,000 than if it’s only 20,000 (or even 40,000, which is considered pretty good for a brand new author).

By: Jami Alden

Jami Alden — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 22:44:30 +0000

I’ve heard NAL is notoriously bad about enforcing laydown dates, even for really big authors like Ward - authors routinely show up on bookscan a week or two before release date. And to answer Jill - Monica McCarty doesn’t do the brogue thing.

By: Ann Bruce

Ann Bruce — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 21:39:37 +0000

To be honest, when I saw McCarty, I thought of Sarah McCarty. Could other readers be making the same mistake?